At one time, Guelph was one of the best labour market performers in Canada.
But the low unemployment rate has suddenly taken a turn, hitting highs not seen in over a decade. something the head of a local labour force planning board said could be due to political uncertainty.
Last month, Statistics Canada said the unemployment rate in Guelph jumped to 7.8 per cent.
Across Canada, the rate dropped to 6.6 per cent, adding 76,000 jobs.
Not including between April 2020 and August 2021 – where the pandemic took a toll on employment across the country – it’s the highest monthly rate recorded in Guelph since at least January 2011. Statistics Canada doesn’t have data available online before that.
“There’s a fair amount of manufacturing in Guelph, so that may be playing part of it,” said Charlene Hofbauer, the executive director of the Workforce Planning Board of Waterloo Wellington Dufferin.
“There are some temporary layoffs in a number of manufacturing because manufacturing (and) construction have slowed down. They’re in a wait-and-see stage.”
Hofbauer said much of the economy is in a wait-and-see stage due to the uncertainty around US tariffs, as well as the ongoing election campaign in Ontario and the upcoming federal election.
She said that’s the census they’re hearing from many employers the board speaks with, as well as potential cutbacks on staffing as employers wait to see what is going on.
Another factor is that there are fewer people employed in key industries, such as education and health care.
“We’re not too sure if that’s cuts or if that is people leaving,” she said.
“That may be playing a factor as well in a market as small as Guelph, which I’ll be honest, it doesn’t take a lot of people to really push that number up because … the unadjusted rate is 6.9 per cent, that’s 7,200 people.”
In the last few months, the rate equates to about 2,000 more jobless people in Guelph.
She said what we’re probably seeing is several companies laying off people here and there, and doesn’t think it’s marking the collapse of any particular industry.
“It’s a lot of industries making those adjustments in economic uncertainty,” she said.
For reference, the unadjusted rate of 6.9 per cent is the highest rate in Guelph since August 2014, again not factoring in months impacted by the pandemic.
The seasonally adjusted rate, as Hofbauer noted, factors in such things as retail laying off temporary holiday workers.
Despite the grim figure, one she said is a bright spot is the labour participation rate, which came in at 66.8 per cent in Guelph last month. It’s a number Hofbauer called “strong.”
“That means people are looking for work, or actively working, despite the fact that unemployment’s high, there’s still people willing to look for jobs,” she said.
“So there is belief on the part of job seekers that they will find employment.”
She said other communities in Ontario show numbers indicating people are giving up, which creates a set of challenges.
“At least in Guelph, we have a pretty strong community that still feels that working is possible, and there are opportunities in the market,” she said.
In particular, Hofbauer added a problem they are running into is a lack of opportunities for youth.
Moving forward, she said we’ll have to take a month-to-month wait-and-see approach and continue to talk to one another.
She said businesses are going to need to be patient, and should consider exploring support programs to help retain workers.
“(In addition), businesses should reach out to any organization that supports businesses because if that’s not the right door, they’ll help you find the right door, and same with job seekers,” Hofbauer said.
“Starting somewhere is your best point.”