TORONTO — Ontario voters are set to head to the polls in a rare winter election.
Premier Doug Ford has already been framing the snap election, coming right before an anticipated federal vote, as necessary for a strong mandate in order to best represent Ontario's interests on the national and world stage.
Ford, whose Progressive Conservatives held 79 of 124 seats in the legislature as of Tuesday's dissolution, has said tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump would hit the province hard, and he needs a strong new "mandate" from voters in order to respond.
But opposition parties say that justification doesn’t have the ring of truth, since Ford already has a mandate as premier to shepherd the economy through tough times.
They believe it's more likely he is trying to capitalize on good polling numbers and get ahead of a conclusion to an RCMP criminal investigation into his government's ultimately-reversed plan to develop parcels of the protected Greenbelt lands.
Here is a look at three top issues likely to shape the campaign.
TRUMP AND TARIFFS
For Doug Ford, this will be the top issue of the campaign and the one he is likely to focus on — and he likely hopes voters will focus on it, too.
Amid political chaos in Ottawa, the provincial leader has been at the forefront of Canada's pushback as Trump threatens 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods.
Those images may well be beneficial to Ford's re-election bid.
He has said that American tariffs will deeply hurt Ontario's economy, in particular the auto sector, and he expects he would have to spend tens of billions of dollars to counter those effects.
The opposition parties say that they would support such stimulus measures, rendering an election unnecessary.
HEALTH CARE
Health care is a perennial election issue, and this campaign promises to be no different, though where in recent elections there has been a lot of talk about "hallway health care" and emergency medicine, the need for more family doctors is expected to dominate this time.
The Ontario College of Family Physicians has estimated that 2.5 million people in the province do not have a family doctor and that number is only expected to grow.
Before the legislature rose in December, the Liberals had started to employ a strategy of highlighting how many people didn't have a family doctor in each Progressive Conservative caucus member's riding, and that is likely to continue, as opposition parties say it is one of the issues they hear about most often at the doors.
Days before the official campaign launch the health minister announced a whopping $1.8-billion plan to secure family doctors for two million more Ontarians.
HOUSING
This issue was top of mind during the 2022 election campaign, with the Progressive Conservatives vowing to build 1.5 million homes in 10 years.
After forming government, they continued to make it a top issue, even as the agenda became derailed by the Greenbelt scandal, subsequent ministerial resignations and reversals of housing policies.
But opposition parties charge that the Progressive Conservatives have de-emphasized the housing supply crisis in recent months as their 1.5 million target moved further and further out of reach.
Ontario has not yet met any of its annual targets toward that goal, though it came very close in 2023 after it started counting long-term care beds.
Since the issue is still a live one, expect the opposition parties to remind voters of the less-than-ideal progress.
The NDP has also recently been trying to tie the issue of homeless encampments to Ford, as they have popped up in nearly every community around the province under his tenure. Ford has pledged to dismantle encampments across the province.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 28, 2025.
Allison Jones, The Canadian Press
