Some political leaders in Guelph are expressing a bit of shock, but there's also a sense of understanding in reaction to new proposed federal riding boundaries.
The map, released Friday by the Federal Electoral Districts Redistribution Committee, would relocate south Guelph to the larger, mostly rural riding, renamed Wellington-Halton.
It's a review and change mandated to happen every 10 years under the Constitution of Canada, "to reflect changes and movements in Canada's population."
With a growing population in Guelph - reaching 143,740 according to the latest Census data in 2021, up 9.1 per cent from 2016 - Guelph's Liberal MP Lloyd Longfield said a new boundary like this makes sense.
"I would've liked them to take a few different polls than what they took, but that's okay," he told GuelphToday.
"I think Guelph has population growth, and right now we have a larger riding than our neighbouring ridings and we're growing faster."
If approved as proposed, Guelph would mostly stay intact.
But residents living south of Arkell Road, along with the Kortright Hills neighbourhood in the southwestern portion of the city, would become part of the renamed Wellington-Halton riding, along with places like Elora, Fergus, Erin, Morriston, and the Marsville and Belwood area to the north.
Georgetown would be relocated to a newly formed Georgetown-Milton East riding.
Longfield said south Guelph is "where a lot of the growth is" in the city, so he didn't seem surprised the committee looked at that area of the city.
Guelph MPP Mike Schreiner said we've seen how dangerous gerrymandering can be in "undermining democracy in the US," so he didn't delve too much into his thoughts on the matter.
But he does see the writing on the wall with more people coming to Guelph, and understands the challenge faced by the commission.
"We're in a bit of a dilemma," he said. "Guelph, population-wise, is one of the largest ridings in the country. At some point, in order to maintain relatively equal ridings by population, given the growth in Guelph, it's inevitable you'd see some sort of split (in the riding)."
Schreiner said no neighbourhood in Guelph would be enthused to be taken out of the city's riding, and is encouraging any member of the community concerned to speak out as part of the process.
For Michael Chong, the Conservative MP for Wellington-Halton Hills, he's all for the process as well.
“Due to population changes, Canada has an independent commission – free of partisan interference – that determines new federal electoral district boundaries every decade based on the most recent census data," he said in an emailed statement.
"This ensures each district has roughly the same number of people and each vote roughly the same weight, upholding the constitutional principle of representation by population. I respect the work of the independent commission, and look forward its final report.”
On the municipal side of things, Guelph mayor Cam Guthrie didn't understand at first why they would mess with what stands now – the one member for each level of government in the city - but looking at the why, he said he gets it from an equity and a proportional point of view.
"We are a growing, not just country, not just province, but we are growing as a city as well," he said. "We are already over the normal population numbers that would be usually equated for representation from an MP.
"Looking at the provincial mandated growth targets, where we will be by 2051 in itself, over 200,000 people, there obviously has to come a point where the riding distribution of population does need to be equalized."
Guthrie said he respects the independence of the mandate, but admits it would be an adjustment, not just for the relationships between the three levels of government at the local level, but also for the communities in Guelph being placed in a new riding, if it comes to fruition.
The incumbent city councillor for south Guelph, however, is concerned about shifting 25,000 people to another larger, primarily rural riding, where she feels worried voices may not be heard.
"The shock was that it was primarily the folks in Ward 6, it was primarily everything south of Arkell Road, and that is a division that is still very sensitive in this city," said Dominique O'Rourke.
She said she's heard it many times, people referring to that end of the city as "not real Guelph, they're just commuters anyways, that's 'Hamilton North,' you name it."
"We just made progress at the city to increase the representation for the south end of Guelph, which had been very much underrepresented for at least a decade," O'Rourke said. "We're just making progress on orienting the whole south end towards the entire city and vice-versa to get to a one-city approach.
"I think this proposal fractures that."
It's not to say she doesn't believe in representation by population, she says she absolutely does.
But O'Rourke said "community of interest" is also important in all this.
"All the people who live in the south end of Guelph, ask them," she said. "Do they identify with Wellington County, or do they identify with Guelph and the issues in Guelph. Whether it's a provincial riding or a federal riding, I think that division where it's being proposed is problematic."
Those looking to give their input can participate in a virtual public hearing Sept. 28 at 6:30 p.m.
The meeting is one of many happening across Ontario for various ridings. The meeting for Guelph would also be for residents living in Wellington, Halton, Brampton, Caledon, Dufferin and Mississauga.