Guelph is among the most vulnerable cities in Canada to tariffs imposed by US president Donald Trump.
According to a new report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Guelph would be the sixth hardest hit among the 41 census metropolitan areas ranked with a population above 100,000.
“I think we all knew we were going to get hit by them, but we weren’t sure until we saw the actual data just how rough it could be,” said Guelph Chamber president Andy Veilleux.
“It’s sort of sobering and it’s given us some true perspective of exactly what we’re looking at.”
The top 10 cities listed on the TEI are:
- Saint John, NB (131.1 per cent)
- Calgary, AB (81.6 per cent)
- Windsor, ON (61.7 per cent)
- Kitchener, Waterloo and Cambridge, ON (43 per cent)
- Brantford, ON (27.8 per cent)
- Guelph, ON (24 per cent)
- Saguenay, QC (23.5 per cent)
- Hamilton, ON (19.8 per cent)
- Trois-Rivieres, QC (18.9 per cent)
- Lethbridge, AB (15.7 per cent)
The list takes into account US export intensity, a city’s dependence on the United States for exporting and more. The numbers are combined into what the Canadian Chamber calls a tariff exposiure index (TEI).
The Canadian Chamber cites Guelph being home to Sleeman Breweries – which sources aluminum from the US for most of its cans – as well as the headquarters for Linamar, a massive auto parts maker in Canada, as reasons for being high up the list.
“This is considerable when you look at the tariffs, and especially with the auto sector and manufacturing, the way (parts cross) the border multiple times before we get to a finished product,” said Pascal Chan, the vice president of strategic policy and supply chains with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
“It’s something that we look at very closely, and that it’s going to cause problems on both sides of the border.”
It's a similar issue experienced among a number of large communities along the Highway 401 corridor.
Windsor, Waterloo region and Brantford are all hubs for manufacturing and automotive, and some have exports from the agriculture sector.
Over $6 billion in goods exports from Guelph go to the US, according to the report. That is $33,705 per capita, or per resident on average.
Guelph’s gross domestic product (GDP) is $11.8 billion. Exports to the US represent 33.9 of that.
The report states there are 362 different businesses in Guelph exporting to the US.
Of note, the data sourced from Statistics Canada cites 2023 numbers for trade and population data. The GDP data for cities dates back to 2021.
“We’re encouraging Canadians to take a look at their own community, and neighbouring community so they can better understand how our trade system impacts us all,” said Chan.
Across the country, Saint John, New Brunswick will be the most vulnerable according to the report.
The Canadian Chamber cites it being the location of the largest crude oil refinery in Canada, with more than 80 per cent of the 320,000 barrels of crude processed every day heading south.
Similarly, Calgary will be hit because of its crude oil exports. It also has beef as a major export.
Trump said the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports kick in March 12.
It comes as a 30-day pause – which began Feb. 4 – continues between the US and Canada, as the US plans to impose an across-the-board 25 per cent tariff on imports, and 10 per cent on Canadian energy.
Chan said Canada and the US have had a partnership going back decades, and a partnership Canada doesn’t want to disrupt.
“Our trading relationship with the US is about mutual benefit,” he said.
“Unfortunately, that’s just not the way that Donald Trump sees it. In his view, it’s about winners and losers.”
Chan said with the threats, Trump is teaching a challenging lesson about Canada being “exposed to this renewed risk whenever we’re in these periods of uncertainty.”
It provides an opportunity to look at Canada’s top priorities, diversifying trading partners, protecting jobs, internal trade and preparing for retaliatory measures if tariffs are imposed.
He pointed out inter-provincial trade drives about a fifth of Canada’s GDP, but there are barriers that need to come down between provinces to improve that number.
“Going forward, internal trade has to be a key aspect of our Canada-US trade strategy because we need to be looking at controlling what we can control.” Chan said.
There will be growing pains as businesses and the countries navigate these conditions.
“It’s really interesting the amount of damage that this current administration is willing to accept on their side of the border,” Veilleux said. “I’m not really sure what the hopeful outcome is on this, but I think it’s hard.
“Unpredictability makes it difficult for everybody, let alone the community of Guelph. What are the prices going to be like for us as consumers when we’re buying stuff, and what’s availability going to be like for goods, if we keep getting these tariffs and disruption to our supply chain.”