Early data from Elections Ontario shows a slight uptick in voters in Guelph, Wellington and across the province compared to the 2022 election.
A little over 5 million or 45.4 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot in Thursday’s provincial election, compared to 44.06 per cent in the previous election – a record low.
Locally, 52 per cent of Guelph’s 115,454 eligible voters cast a ballot, compared to 49.4 per cent in the 2022 election.
But it’s not necessarily a reflection of higher engagement, according to one local expert.
“There’s hardly any difference there,” said Julie Simmons, a political science professor at the University of Guelph.
“More than 50 per cent of eligible voters chose not to participate in this election.”
It was the first winter election in the province since 1981, but she doesn’t think a snap election in frigid temperatures influenced engagement the way worried thought it might.
“For example, we know that in countries that use single member plurality or first past the post, which is our electoral system, that voter turnout is much lower than it is in places that use some kind of proportional representation,” she said.
“Generally speaking, voter turnout is lower in the single member plurality or first past the post system because a lot of people feel that their vote is wasted, because our system is a winner take all system.”
For instance, if voters are convinced the Conservative’s will keep their riding, they won’t bother going out to vote for another party.
“If people think there is a close race between two parties, then we will see voter turnout perhaps come up a little bit,” she said.
It’s for that reason a PC majority is exactly what Simmons expected.
“We knew from polling data that Ford was so far ahead of the other candidates, and that’s why the election was called virtually as soon as the polls closed last night, because it was such a landslide.”
It was a landslide locally, too, with incumbent MPP Mike Schreiner taking more than 56 per cent of the votes.
Guelph has consistently trended above the provincial average for voter turnout; Simmons said Schreiner’s presence is likely why.
“It is a riding where there is the leader of a political party; also it’s the leader of a political party that is striving for a presence in the legislature.
“They have such a high profile candidate; it’s just the uniqueness of his brand and his profile as a leader of a party. If the Greens don’t win in Guelph, where would they win?”
