WELLINGTON COUNTY – Wellington County’s population will see significant growth over 30 years from Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) residents moving to the area according to a high level forecast report.
Sarah Wilhelm, manager of policy planning for the county, presented a report regarding proposed amendments to the provincial growth plan to the planning committee Thursday morning.
One of the changes is to forecast growth from 2031 to 2051 compared to just up to 2041. A high level scenario is projecting a population of 168,000.
The last census in 2016 showed the county has a population of just over 93,000.
Wilhelm said to the committee this population growth would be caused by big city residents moving into the area.
“In the case of Wellington, I think it’s important to note that a lot of our growth will be fueled by people moving here from the GTHA,” Wilhelm said. “That’s reflected in increased rates of growth.”
More people in the county has to mean more jobs in the county.
A provincial employment forecast shows 79,000 jobs in the county by 2051, up from 40,000 in 2016.
“This is a highly desirable area of the province to work and live,” Wilhelm said.
Wilhelm said forecasting is a complex exercise and provincial consultants use the best available economic and demographic data. Assumptions are made about fertility, mortality and migration rates in making these projections.
Wilhelm explained to the committee that growth forecasts are critical to the planning department’s work. In addition to that, Wilhelm said at the local level it helps plan for infrastructure, municipal financing and public service delivery.
Allan Alls, Erin mayor and chair of the planning committee, said he’s already seeing rapid growth in his town.
He said all development land in Erin has been bought by major developers and the housing market is highly favourable to sellers.
“In Erin alone now, every property coming up for sale is getting multiple offers,” Alls said.
“It’s people fleeing from the city, they don’t want to live there anymore. The pandemic has changed their whole atmosphere of how they can live in that environment.”
Members of the committee mentioned possible pushback on development from residents who want to keep their small towns small.
“People are going to object to this because people move to our smaller communities because they want that small community life,” Alls said. “You can’t stop progress no matter how hard you stand in front of it.”
The planning committee approved the report and are sending their comments on the amendments to the province.
