A December to remember for Guelph residents, weather-wise.
Guelphites not only experienced a rare green Christmas, but average temperatures in December were one for the record books.
“This was the warmest low temperature on average in our historical records, (dating back to 1881),” said Environment Canada warning preparedness meteorologist Steven Flisfeder.
The average overnight low came in at about -0.5 C, breaking a record set in 2015 by less than a degree. The lowest the mercury fell was -5.8 C on Dec. 14.
During the day, the temperature didn’t climb too much. The average daytime high last month was around 4 C, with the monthly high climbing to 12.1 C on Dec. 9.
“The historical record (for average daytime high) that we have is just under 6 C, and that was in 2015,” Flisfeder said.
“So not too far back in our memory, under a decade ago.”
While not unprecedented, he admits it is well above what Guelph normally sees at this time of year.
“I wouldn’t say it’s shocking (to see these temperatures),” he said. “The warming overnight low temperatures is in line with the trends that we expect with climate change.
“That doesn’t mean that climate change is the sole responsible source for that warming. This is an El Nino winter, which typically does mean warmer conditions than normal, so there are a couple possible contributing factors that could explain why this was such a warm December.”
As for rainfall, he said active stations in Guelph aren’t tracking it, so he doesn’t have the total local numbers. The national weather authority isn’t keeping track of snow amounts locally either, so he wasn't able to provide data.
But he said based on data collected from sites in and around the area, it wasn’t exactly a record-breaker for the month.
“Our historical records within Guelph, the rainfall record is just under 115 mm, and that was dating way back in 1889,” Flisfeder said. “What we saw this year is definitely higher than normal in terms of rainfall, but not anywhere close to our record.”
With that, he added Guelph could be in for similar conditions in the next couple months.
“For the rest of January, we’re expecting near normal temperatures,” he said. “You can expect daytime highs of just under zero, on average. That’s not to say we won’t have warmer days, and that we won’t have much colder days, but generally speaking, expect temperatures to be daytime highs of about zero, maybe a couple degrees below, and overnight lows of about -10 C."
He said February is a “little hazy at this point,” but indicates the winter outlook predicted an above normal month.
“More up to date guidance is showing us that there could be some variability,” he said.
“January is already falling short of the prediction, and February – at least the beginning of February – could also as well.”
