With the federal Conservative Party of Canada seemingly gaining strength in the polls heading toward the next federal election, there is still no local candidate in place.
Liberal candidate Dominique O'Rourke has been campaigning since being chosen in July, NDP candidate Janice Folk-Dawson was acclaimed over a year ago and the Green Party is set to choose between Dr. Anne-Marie Zajdlik and Dylan White on Nov. 2.
But no Tory candidate or any announcement about who is seeking the nomination or if and when a nomination meeting is planned.
Though there can be some benefit to waiting, Julie Simmons, a political science professor at the University of Guelph, believes parties face several potential pitfalls if they take too long.
“I think, ideally, if you want to have grassroots politics playing out, then you want to have an actual nomination process at the local level,” she said, referring to the possibility of candidates being appointed by federal party officials in the absence of locally picked people.
“Part of the democratic process is choosing the candidates to run for specific parties, and it is important that there's opportunity for that to take place before people are stuck into campaigning mode,” Simmons continued. “So if candidates aren't in place before the election (is called), then those processes are hard.”
It can be difficult to run a candidate search while also drumming up volunteers, organizing their efforts and preparing general campaign logistics, Simmons said.
However, there could be advantages to waiting.
“If somebody is a fresher face, then that might capture the attention of voters,” Simmons said, adding, “But I think we can assume that most people, until the election, don't actually know who the candidates are for all of the parties.”
Turning to the local Conservative Party of Canada, a candidate should be in place “by the end of the year,” said Guelph riding association president Robert Coole.
“We are in the middle of doing a candidate search right now. We are in the process of doing interviews,” he said, explaining potential candidates must then be vetted by federal party officials. “If we have more than one local candidate, we will be doing a nomination convention.”
If an election is called before the Guelph CPC association has a candidate in place, Coole said the federal party may appoint one.
Unless an early call is made, the next federal election is set for October of next year.
The ruling Liberal party has minority control of the House of Commons. Last month, the NDP announced an agreement to support the Liberals and keep them in government is over.
Since then, attempts to topple the government have fallen short.
If the government is defeated or the Prime Minister calls for a snap election, the Canada Elections Act sets a minimum election period of 36 days.
Though seemingly less so on the local side, Simmons said the federal CPC party appears to be the most ready to campaign.
“I think right now the Conservatives see that they could easily win an election, or they believe that, at the national level,” she said. “And so certainly with campaign ads running, with (CPC leader Piere) Poilievre walking through a field with his wife, it's clear that they want to go now.”
During the 2021 general election, Liberal incumbent Lloyd Longfield (who is not seeking re-election this time around) took the seat with 29,376 votes.
In second place, CPC candidate Ashish Sachan received 16,796 votes, followed by the NDP’s Aisha Jahangir (14,716) and Michelle Bowman of the Green Party (5,250).
